Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Predicting 2006

I have some predictions for 2006.

1) The House and Senate will not change hands. Even though the Republicans will lose seats, they will keep control of both chambers. The Democrats may pick up as many as ten House seats, but the victory will be somewhat hollow. The Senate will remain the way it is. Democrats won't pick up more than two seats, but it could actually remain the same (55 seats for the GOP, 44 for the Democrats, and one Independent if Bernie Saunders wins in Vermont), or the GOP may actually gain one seat because they have less seats to defend and can attract better candidates to win open seats and unseat others.

2) Samuel Alito will be confirmed to the Supreme Court by a slim majority. Maybe even as small as fifty four votes.

3) Donald Rumsfeld will retire. Possible replacements could be John Breaux, a former Democratic Senator from Louisiana or Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. A pro-war Democrat would have an easier time getting confirmed for Bush than another neoconservative.

4) Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sen. Debbie Stabenow will be reelected because the State Republican Party is in disarray here in Michigan. They can't attract good statewide candidates to run for office. Better look to 2008 to win a Senate seat if Carl Levin retires.

5) British PM Tony Blair will leave office by the end of the year. Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer will replace him, call an election in either '07 or '08, and if the Tories do as well as they are now, may win control of the House of Commons. The Tories lead in the polls; the first time since 1993 they have done so.

6) In Canada, the Conservatives may win a minority government; the first government won since being reelected in 1988. The government will fall in a year, and if they play their cards right, could win a majority by 2007. Stephen Harper will become the next Prime Minister of Canada and US-Canada relations will improve.

It's Been A While

Sorry, I've been distracted with finishing exams this last semester and the holiday break was a time for me to chill out and give my mind a break.

Anyway, I'll try and post at least a couple of times during the week. My schedule will most likely involve me having only two classes to finish up my Master's and an internship. Hopefully, I'll graduate in April.